The Arctic: What Next? Land of the Great Bear

The book is available direct from the author, via [email protected]  

Cdr David Berry

In The Arctic: What Next?, the author delivers an interesting and structured account of the Arctic’s growing strategic relevance to the UK. Throughout the book, he interweaves government policy, the maritime domain, environmental challenges, competing defence postures, and economics, into his narrative, reinforcing his argument that the High North can no longer be treated as peripheral to British interests or as a distant frontier. The Arctic he describes is complex; characterised by the interconnection of various issues. In doing so, Gray positions Arctic issues within the wider national security conversation rather than treating it as a niche, single issue.

Gray’s long‑term Arctic credentials are evident throughout, although his arguments are occasionally diluted by an over-concentration on his personal experiences and an overly self-referential tone. Gray, as a former MP and author of the book Full English Brexit, explains the challenges facing the region, particularly the implications of climate change, Russian militarisation, and the strategic consequences of receding ice. As an explanatory piece of writing, the book is interesting and worth investing time in reading, but it has an undercurrent of frustration that the UK does not have greater influence in the region that Gray thinks the UK deserves. Few are immune from criticism in this respect including Denmark, Iceland and USA whose ‘colonial’ holds on Greenland, ‘uninhabited rocks’ and Alaska provide them with more influence.

As is often the case with discussions surrounding the Arctic, Gray doesn’t quite provide the clear justification necessary to address the gaping absence of a convincing strategic rationale for more direct UK engagement in the region, particularly in the military domain other than by highlighting its growing importance. Although Britain’s connections to the Arctic are discussed, Gray stops short of demonstrating why these links warrant substantial investment, risk, or even military confrontation. What advantages would deeper involvement bring, what outcomes should be pursued, and by what means can they be achieved? This void in the national debate is especially apparent in the discussion of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). With only 16 east to west passages in 2024, compared to approximately 18,000 through the Suez Canal and 15,000 via Panama, the strategic and economic benefits seem negligible. Consequently, the reader is left questioning the thinking behind the UK potentially challenging Russia’s effective control and militarisation of the NSR for such limited reward?

This contributes to a wider ambiguity within the national debate. Russia, possessing about half of the Arctic’s coastline, has straightforward geographic and economic motives for asserting its dominance, viewing the region as integral to its national identity. In contrast, the UK’s position is markedly weaker. The UK is outside the Arctic Council which only offers a fragile governance structure anyway and it faces a clear disparity in interest and influence. While the book explicitly acknowledges this, it fails to provide the reader conceptual clarity or a framework on how to address it. Beyond advocating for increased engagement and understanding, what precisely is should the UK’s objective be? Is the aim to influence governance, actively challenge Russia, support allied efforts, or simply remain an informed observer of Arctic significance? What concrete goals should the UK pursue?

There is also a conceptual tension in the narrative. At times the book asks who will ‘save’ the Arctic, whether from climate change through scientific endeavour or how governance might be better applied. Elsewhere it advocates NATO challenging Russian military dominance in the High North. Although interlinked, these agendas are influenced by fundamentally different drivers, one moral, ecological and jurisdictional, the other political and geo-strategic.

Gray explains the Arctic’s growing importance in an entertaining fashion but stops short of making the killer arguments required to drive British policy, prioritisation, and action.