Deterrence, Escalation, and the Offence- Defence Balance: Considerations for UK Maritime Strategy

By Lt Cdr David Blagden RNR

Message from the Editor

Channeling Stephen Biddle’s concept of systemic military technology and Herman
Kahn’s escalation ladder, the author considers potential contemporary scenarios
impacting the preservation of deterrence for the UK’s Armed Forces. A 15 minute read.

The contemporary strategic environment of intensifying major-power competition creates perilous incentives for hostile states to escalate to conflict – and to further escalate such a conflict once it starts – in the hopes of attaining competitive advantage. Since such escalation could do grievous harm to the UK and our interests, its avoidance is a topic of renewed importance. This article, derived from a discussion paper prepared for the RN Strategic Studies Centre, therefore explores a number of related escalation concerns relevant to contemporary UK maritime strategy. Its focus is on astute…

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