Putin’s Empty Ukraine Nuclear Threat
By Robert Green
Sir, – Further to my letter (110/4 p. 561), I feel the need to draw attention to another fundamentally important point, which I see no sign of being raised because of its dire implications for nuclear deterrence.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons if thwarted in his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine is empty. He must know it would be a massive own goal, certainly ensuring ignominious defeat and worse.
Paradoxically, Putin has given a huge boost to the drive for a nuclear weapons-free world. By exploiting the current perverse doctrinal consensus between Russia and US-led NATO regarding potential use of nuclear weapons, he has exposed the reality that nuclear deterrence is an irresponsible confidence trick which merely exacerbates insecurity and is militarily incoherent.
Aside from the question of what target he might choose, use of even one so-called ‘tactical’ nuclear weapon would leave a radioactive wasteland in one of the world’s key agricultural areas, generate a medical and refugee catastrophe, and risk Russian access to its vital warm water outlets along the Black Sea coast. Furthermore, it would inevitably risk a nuclear reprisal from the US, and consequent escalation to nuclear World War III.
