The Credibility of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence as a Strategic Deterrent – Investigated Using Game Theory

By the Editor: As the winner of the 2019 Naval Review/RJD Technology prize, the author explores where, in deterrence terms, the ‘rubber meets the road’ – after all there has been much written about deterrence policy, efficacy and legality in this journal over the last year. This article is an investigation into the credibility of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence deterrent in the Baltic States using dynamic game theory. Game theory is, perhaps, a forgotten means of analysis of relationships and how changes in one’s own posture and strategic messaging can lead to potential changes in an opponent…