Editorial: Naval Review 112/4

Despite the polls, I have a suspicion that Kamala Harris will win the US election but US Polls, which are not as accurate as UK Polls, are conditioning the electorate that it will be too close to call – the risk of ensuing chaos and disputed results suggest a very stormy time ahead across the pond. Also, the miscreants of the world are watching, so we should expect an increase in dangerous deeds around the globe’s trouble spots to occur. The new Administration must shake off their electoral paralysis and, in the words of Teddy Roosevelt, “speak softly and carry a big stick” and reassert the meaning of red lines both for their allies and their foes. There are over 80 violent conflicts raging around the world, both the new US President and, closer to home, our PM are realising that the international agenda for governing is not within one’s gift, it is ‘events dear boy’ whether that be the actions of State and/or Non-State Actors. Unburdened by the pressure of the ballot box, there needs to be a period where the US takes a firm lead through clear-eyed coherent policy to shape events in both the Middle East and war in Europe setting the conditions for a settlement through strength, solidarity and inclusion of the new wider group of key actors – not ignorance. In the words of Ronald Reagan, “When you can’t make them see the light, make them feel the heat.” On a very serious note, it appears the price of life is being diminished markedly, with leaders prepared to dismiss the International Rules Based Order and global institutions with little or no regard to the innocents. This removal of humanity is yet another indicator and warning that the world is closing in on another global conflict.

Now with my tongue firmly wedged in my cheek, some humour: At home the Government will recognise that fuel and logistic support for the defence of the Realm, delivered by the maritime, is as important as the driving of a train and settle the RFA dispute with a generous no strings attached solution. The Defence Review will recognize that, like the NHS, it is reform that is required but before that a rise in Defence spending to right the wrong of the last 15 years can be achieved and just like the generous resolution of the doctors’ pay dispute, Defence spending will rise instantly to 5.5% of GDP to fill the delta of under-investment over the last decade and a half. Led by a suitably empowered Cabinet Office, Defence will benefit from proper joined up government with all departments recognising and supporting the value of a coherent approach to national prosperity and its inextricable linkage to a competent Defence and Security policy guided by clear foreign policy goals.

A British maritime strategy, formed from recognising that our great success was from being an island for over 500 years, will drive our thinking. The wet flank of NATO will be our number one priority, but we will provide our expertise and investment in the maritime, not on the pointless expenditures on tanks and artillery which the continental powers of the Alliance in Europe will be bringing to the table. If you want to talk Atlantic, European or Global Maritime the first country to pick up the phone to is the United Kingdom. But we must keep a sharp eye out to the east, with meaningful Defence diplomacy and sensible support through a multi-dimensional AUKUS pact but leave the heavy lifting to our regional allies in the Pacific – our ability to take more weight in the Atlantic remains key. All government departments will apply their shoulder to the wheel from the small but safe nuclear enterprise, to British made steel for British built warships and auxiliaries operated by a contented educated, trained, rewarded and an empowered workforce. Critical national infrastructure will be acknowledged as what is critical and will be treated as such. Education will teach the painful lessons of failing to deter aggression in the 20th century, as well as the STEM needed for our young people to succeed in the 21st century.

And we will all grasp the nettle and prosperity through security will thrive. In the meantime, wrap up warm!