Editorial: Naval Review 113/3
As the Chairman observes, another three months of hectic activity on the world stage have flown by. We have been reminded of the awesome power of the US military in action and relearned the importance of husbanding realistic and considered intelligence assessments which will take months, not hours, to assess and really need to remain behind the green baize door.
This shock and awe approach is contrasted with the attritional slaughter that continues in Ukraine with over 1,000 casualties per day. It appears POTUS too is beginning to realise that President Putin has no intention of suing for peace, why would he? He has not achieved his aim and currently is I suspect in his view winning. His Centre of Gravity (COG), the will of the Russian people, does not appear to be threatened. In the UK, the long-awaited Strategic Defence Review has been published along with a National Security Strategy. It makes many fine commitments framed in a language that is impossible to hold to account. Let’s continue to hope we have the time to implement them before they are required in anger.
Searching for the lessons beyond the headlines I offer the following:
- The United States remains the world’s predominant military fighting machine, especially in terms of tactical integration, operational readiness and fighting punch. The power of statecraft and the once almighty dollar should not be written off just yet – witness the US role in extinguishing the recent flareup between India and Pakistan.
- President Obama’s vision of reducing US reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas has been achieved, this enables a US freedom of manoeuvre and action in that theatre, bringing an aggressive calculus to problem-solving in both Iran and Yemen. Conversely, this may present a huge problem for the UK, EU and the rest of the world who are still reliant on the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab El Mandeb. The recent incredibly accurate bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities had the strategic aim of setting back the Iranian nuclear ambition but also achieved the grand strategic messaging to Moscow and Beijing and everyone else, that the US does not require anyone’s approval or indeed assistance in striking very hard and effectively on a global scale from the air, or undetected from the sea.
- Mr Trump’s unpredictability and his strategic impatience are two of the strongest cards in his hand particularly when dealing with both China and Russia as they are unable to read him well. We should all be alive to this as there are many second order consequences for America’s traditional allies as well.
- This is what ‘America First’ looks like in 2025.
Closer to home, the ongoing drive for the best people across the top Defence line continues no matter what their backgrounds. It is talent and ability that enabled an RAF Air Engineer to be appointed as the next CDS, a female General as the VCDS and, of course, a Royal Marine General as the new First Sea Lord. We wish them all well. Perhaps the real question we should be asking is why has it taken so long, considering that the policy to enable Royal Marine Officers to compete for RN common appointments was introduced by Admiral Sir Jock Slater when he was 1SL nearly 30 years ago. For those of us who have served in the Main Building, we all recognise that it is the ability to conduct the metaphorical ‘knife fight in a phone box’ in arguing the Royal Navy’s case which is the pre-eminent skill required for the role. All who know the General report that the Navy will be in good hands, but let’s not pretend that we are in a good place. Since the beginning of the 1980s, some would argue earlier, successive First Sea Lords, despite their very best efforts, have been engaged in a losing battle to maintain fighting effectiveness, efficiency and morale with ever more expensive kit and fewer people. Whilst there are possible early indications that the tide may be on the turn, and notwithstanding the recent NATO pledges on required defence spending, Defence will be hoping for ‘springs’ whereas the Treasury, our perennial tormentor will be planning and scheming for ‘neaps’.
Finally, we must acknowledge the termination of Sir Ben Key’s tenure as First Sea Lord and his subsequent dismissal. A sad end to a stellar career of great achievement, come what may, we should reflect on the frailty of the human condition and recognise that if an organisation is to impose an absolute standard, beyond that required in society more generally, it must be applied fairly to all. We wish him, Lady Key and their family along with the others involved peace and understanding as they seek to close this difficult chapter in their lives.
