Editorial: Naval Review 114/3
The vast population of this ‘sceptred isle’ is ‘sea blind’ or, if you prefer, ‘maritime illiterate’. We should acknowledge this as the steady state and the only thing that could change one’s appreciation would be total war.
We can bang on about 70% of the world’s oceans being covered in water, 80% of the people of the Earth living within 100 miles of the sea, 90%-plus of all our trade being conducted on the sea as well as virtually 100% of the data, the lifeblood of our modern economy, travelling under the sea. Our Nation is also blind to the business of defence; a responsibility of a relatively small government department with a massive budget, a modest workforce supplemented by an industry and others that make up around 1% of our population. We rely on our politicians and elected officials to get this right on our behalf to keep us safe and steer a path so that we can blissfully get along with the British way of life.
These are the people that need to understand the sea. I suggest it would take an existential war to bring everyone to their senses! Most commentators appear to have forgotten that to rectify the real bill for decades of neglect was £28 bn. The Starmer administration’s attempts to deliver this with a settlement which, on closer analysis, looks to be about a third of what’s required – butter no parsnips! No wonder Messers Healy and Cairns resigned at this insult to them and frankly the whole of the Armed Forces community. No, let’s be honest, the whole of the country is being badly let down by the lack of serious investment. Governance requires trust, so to learn 24 hours later that a third of the announced funds were in actual fact unfunded was astonishingly disingenuous. How is industry supposed to have faith in the MoD when the Treasury is playing such appalling games? The First Lord of the Treasury is about to change and, although summer is upon us, there is little time to holiday and whilst signing the letter of last resort may be one of Mr Burnham’s first tasks on arriving in his new office, let’s all hope that getting around to sorting out Defence is not his last.
In a globalised, innovative world, economic setbacks such as the blocking of the Suez Canal, the dysfunction of the Panama Canal and the blockading of the Strait of Hormuz are all short term issues that by and large the maritime industry have been successful in mitigating, so what if there are no mangos or BBQs on the supermarket shelves this week, we simply buy something else or go without. The resilience of global fuel stocks appears to have also been solved in the short term. The Chinese cannot afford to lose their export markets, so along with others around the world have carefully husbanded stocks and switched to other solutions so the shock has yet to really impact beyond a 5-10% rise in domestic and industrial cost of fuel. But as I write the fire that is Operation EPIC FURY was never properly doused, appears to be reigniting with vengeance. Round two of the maritime equivalent of David verses Goliath. There is no novel solution here; air power and sea power alone are unlikely to succeed in breaking the Iranian regime, for which the conflict has become existential. The boots on the ground option is unlikely to achieve success without an unacceptable butcher’s bill. Anyone who has an answer where both parties can genuinely walk away with contentment, please drop me a line. The so-what for the rest of us, as that precious reserve is nearing empty and the consequences of the many other oil products that for example failed to fertilize our fields this year will start to bite, it is likely to hurt.
It appears that Ukraine has stemmed the tide of Russian aggression on the battlefield with remarkable advances in production and technology. This latest example of a revolution in military affairs is both to be welcomed but also treated with caution. AI is being let loose on the problem of countering the Russian armies, how long before the Russians will catch up and then what are the consequences that will present for the rest of us.
It is also becoming clear the Ukrainians are using their enhanced drone technology to degrade most maritime activity in the Sea of Azov thereby effectively closing the Kerch strait. The nightly attacks have damaged or neutralised over one hundred vessels in a period of a few days. Meanwhile the USN are also wrestling with how to open a contested global chokepoint in the Gulf, there are no easy answers. The rapid advance of mass hybrid solutions has become compelling and the RN appears well placed. The infrastructure to achieve this will require huge investment and present many challenges.
As I sign off on another editorial, the unwelcome news that we now only have up to five operational Type 23s has just been confirmed as HMS Richmond and HMS Iron Duke are to be decommissioned along with the astonishingly successful HMS Chiddingfold. It is going to be a very difficult couple of years.
