Letter to the Editor: ‘Once in a generation moment’ to make big defence decisions

Sir, – In my letter to the editor posted online ‘Time to rethink UK defence budget’ I suggested that in order to restore our sadly depleted Navy we should leave nuclear warfare to others.[1] Recent statements by the Trump administration surrounding the Munich Conference have been a very rude – but not unexpected –  awakening to the reality that Europe can no longer rely on the US for its security.[2] This could quite conceivably include nuclear as well as conventional security and that we cannot rely on the US abiding by NATO’s Article 5 to respond to an attack on another NATO member. President Trump clearly does not feel bound by previous treaties or agreements.

The other reality, as is now widely recognised, is that Europe is ill prepared to defend itself. With the exception of states immediately bordering Russia, most states are under-equipped and the UK particularly so. Now, therefore, is the time to think big – the Prime Minister calls it a ‘Once in a generation moment’ – and well outside the box including, as I suggested in my previous letter, the UK leaving nuclear warfare to others.

One might assume this means leaving it to the US but I suggest definitely not so. The long asserted independence of the UK’s Trident nuclear weapon system is not looking – as many have argued for years – so very independent after all and hence the UK’s ability to commit Trident to NATO has also to be questioned. President Trump may well think otherwise lest we consider use of low yield warheads in the context of Ukraine and so drag him into an unwanted nuclear war.

But, within Europe, there already exists a truly independent nuclear weapon force in the shape of the French ‘Force de dissuasion’ consisting of both submarine and air delivery platforms. The RN is struggling to support the single platform of our ageing Vanguard-class submarines which are badly affected by technical problems, over-long patrols and severe crew shortages. Their replacement Dreadnought-class is retreating so far into the distance (PWR3 reactor red-flagged third year in a row) that there is a real possibility of CASD patrols having to be suspended sometime in the future.[3] Therefore, one has to question whether, under the political and financial pressures now existing, Europe needs or can afford to have two nuclear weapon equipped states, one of which is subject to US permission to use. This could sensibly be resolved if France were to provide NATO with its ‘nuclear umbrella’. The UK could then redirect all its own military resources to restoring our severely depleted Navy and Army; at least one element of which, as I have also proposed previously, could be to re-purpose the Dreadnoughts as cruise missile firing submarines (SSGN) similar to the ageing USN Ohio-class which are capable of delivering massive conventional strikes.

If Europe and NATO are to grow their military capabilities to offset the withdrawal of US military and political support then big and bold strategies such as this must seriously be considered and, even at this late stage, by the UK Government’s ongoing defence review. The current Starmer/Macron entente cordiale enhances this ‘Once in a generation moment’ to do so.

References

[1] https://www.naval-review.com/news-views/letter-to-the-editor-time-to-rethink-the-defence-budget/

[2] https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2025/

[3] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/678a4a9869b9b76c761d0574/IPA_Annual_Report_2023-24.pdf